I've been looking into the price for Nickel products per Dad's suggestion, and zeroed in on a few nickel orientated funds, companies and the price of nickel to make some observation. These include FNI, NIC, VALE, XSTRATA , IPATH DOW NICKEL, and JJN:NYSE ARCA.
A few things seem to be consistent. First, most of the tools available for stock analysis are for short term fluctuations. Bollanger bands, moving averages, etc. Most of which suggest that these nickel stocks and companies are in a sell position. (Or were prior to the gas going out of the market temporarily thanks to Gadhafi) Linear regression usually shows growth, but unsurprisingly it also shows all performing above those weighted averages. Which means that there's significant room to fall without really altering the grwoth trend.
Nickel has risen is price much faster than other commodities in the lateast boom, and although the substitute 'pig-nickel' isn't considered a major replacement, I wonder how much more the price can increase. It almost seems to be back to its pre-recession price.
Regarding the possible impact of cold fusion technology, I'd say its unclear. While I would expect any large announcement of a popular invention using a mineral to increase the interest in that mineral; I don't really know if it would significantly alter demand or that any long term rises wouldn't allow for increasing interest in superior substitutes.
I instinctually have trouble imaging that cold fusion possibilities are priced into nickel prices, but it isn't hard to imagine that much of the expected growth is. While I'm confident in the commodities 'super cycle' theory to lift commodities, and that a cold fusions use for the mineral would have to have positive benefits... I don't like commodities for their risk profile and I'm not so confident that even a cold fusion annoucement would result in nickel immediately being much more in demand.
I do not feel confident in buying into or predicting anything about this commodity today or in the future one way or the other even after assembling what information on price history that I could.
ok, but is there a nickels futures index or somesuch thing like other futures.
ReplyDeleteThat way we can look at a graph of the futures over time (backwards) and then monitor to see if there is a spike (in the near future) for some "unknown" reason. Then we might get in on it before most of the world if you know what I mean.